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2025-11-25 21:54:15 |
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| 프랑스 우크라이나 전투기 방공체계 대규모 수출 계약 |
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2025년 하반기 금융시장의 가장 큰 화제는 ‘금리 인하 전환’이다. 미국 연준이 기준금리 인하 가능성을 시사하면서 한국은행 역시 통화정책 완화를 신중히 검토 중이다. 금리가 낮아지면 가계 이자 부담이 줄고 소비가 회복될 수 있다는 기대가 크다.
이미 일부 시중은행은 주택담보대출 금리를 소폭 낮추기 시작했고, 주택 거래량 또한 서서히 반등하는 흐름을 보이고 있다.
그러나 금리 인하가 곧바로 경제 회복을 보장하는 것은 아니다. 가장 큰 우려는 여전히 높은 물가 수준이다. 글로벌 공급망 불안, 원자재 가격 변동 등 외부 요인이 계속되는 상황에서 성급한 금리 인하는 인플레이션을 자극할 수 있다는 지적이 나온다.
결국 한국은행은 ‘물가 안정 vs 경기 부양’이라는 두 가지 목표 사이에서 매우 신중한 균형을 잡아야 한다.
경제 전문가들은 금리 인하가 가계와 기업의 부담을 덜어주는 효과는 크지만, 동시에 과도한 기대는 위험하다고 말한다. 금리 인하 국면일수록 재정 건전성과 부채 관리가 더욱 중요해지는 만큼, 개인도 가계지출 구조를 다시 점검해야 할 시기라는 분석이다.
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